Perdagangan CPO Indonesia di Era EUDR: Peran Nilai Tukar, GDP, dan Harga Global dalam Ekspor ke ASEAN

Arya Gufa Rifa’i, Sitti Retno Faridatussalam

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Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar, harga minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) internasional, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) negara tujuan, serta kebijakan European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) terhadap ekspor CPO Indonesia ke sembilan negara ASEAN periode 2016–2025. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dan regresi data panel, penelitian ini mengaplikasikan gravity model untuk menjelaskan determinan perdagangan komoditas sawit Indonesia di kawasan regional. Pemilihan model terbaik dilakukan melalui uji Chow dan Hausman, yang menunjukkan bahwa Random Effect Model (REM) merupakan model paling tepat. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor CPO, sedangkan PDB negara tujuan dan kebijakan EUDR berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. Sebaliknya, harga CPO internasional tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa kinerja ekspor CPO Indonesia ke ASEAN lebih responsif terhadap perubahan kondisi makroekonomi negara tujuan dan kebijakan perdagangan global dibandingkan fluktuasi harga komoditas. Lebih lanjut, kebijakan EUDR terbukti mendorong terjadinya trade diversion, yaitu pergeseran aliran ekspor dari pasar Uni Eropa menuju kawasan ASEAN sebagai pasar alternatif. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan penguatan strategi diversifikasi pasar dan peningkatan kerja sama regional guna menjaga stabilitas dan pertumbuhan ekspor CPO Indonesia di tengah dinamika kebijakan perdagangan internasional.

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Referensi


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37531/mirai.v11i2.12870

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