Analysis of the Impact of Economic Growth, the Human Development Index, the Labor Force, and Domestic Investment on Unemployment in East Java (2023–2025)

Ervi Ana Romadhona, Maulidyah Indira Hasmarini

Abstract


Unemployment remained one of the major labor market challenges in East Java Province despite the positive development of various economic indicators. This study aimed to examine the effects of economic growth, the Human Development Index, the labor force, and domestic investment on the unemployment rate in East Java during the 2023–2025 period. The study employed secondary data obtained from Statistics Indonesia, covering 38 regencies and municipalities. Panel data regression analysis was applied, while the most appropriate estimation model was selected through the Chow test and Hausman test, which identified the Fixed Effect Model as the best-fitting model. The findings revealed that all independent variables jointly influenced the unemployment rate. Partially, domestic investment had a negative and statistically significant effect on unemployment, whereas economic growth, the Human Development Index, and the labor force did not show significant effects. The model was able to explain 91.13 percent of the variation in the unemployment rate. These findings indicated that increasing domestic investment contributed to greater labor absorption and had the potential to reduce unemployment in East Java Province.

Full Text:

Download PDF

References


Angger Pramono, W., & Setyowati, E. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Penduduk dan Upah Minimum Kota. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 24. https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v%vi%i

Anwar, A. (2025). Economic growth and unemployment in Indonesia: A short-run and long-run analysis using the ARDL approach. Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi Dan Keuangan, 4, 280–289. https://doi.org/10.20885/JKEK.vol4.iss2.art15

Arfa Syera I, Azmi Tanjung A, & Triana Windi. (2023). The Effect of Human Development Index, Inflation and Economic Growth on Unemployment in Medan City. International Journal of Economics (IJEC), 2(2), 410–422. https://doi.org/10.55299/ijec.v2i2.517

Bilenkisi, F. (2024). Uncertainty, labour force participation and job search. Economic Modelling, 139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106833

Cortadas-Guasch, P. (2024). Analysis of the factors determining educational mismatches: evidence from the Catalonian employment insertion surveys. International Journal of Manpower, 45(10), 77–95. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-09-2023-0540

Firmansyah, M., Arizal, M., Ode, L., Yusuf, M. I., Studi, P., Pembangunan, E., Jakarta, V., Dki, J., Makassar, U. N., & Selatan, S. (n.d.-a). Faktor-Faktor Sosioekonomi yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Provinsi Jawa Timur.

Haider, A., Jabeen, S., Rankaduwa, W., & Shaheen, F. (2023). The Nexus between Employment and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis. Sustainability (Switzerland), 15(15). https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511955

Harati, R. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Kota Palangkaraya I N F O A R T I K E L. 4(2), 55–61.

Khoirunnisa, N., & Rofiki, I. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah, Pdrb, Upah Minimum, Dan Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Di Jawa Timur.

Kurniawati, M., Arif, M., & Id, A. A. (2025). Analysis Of The Impact Of Msmes, Wage Levels, Population Size, And Education Levels On Unemployment In East Java Province. In Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE (Vol. 8, Number 2).

Matsuura, T., & Saito, H. (2023). Foreign direct investment and labor demand by skill in Indonesian manufacturing firms. Review of World Economics, 159(4), 921–941. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-022-00485-y

Nilawati, R., Heryati, Y., & Frida Suryati, T. (2024). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Pengangguran The Effect of Economic Growth on Unemployment. FORUM EKONOMI, 26(1), 155–162.

Putri Ani Winata, W., Choiri, M., Syariah, E., Sunan Kalijaga, U., & Putri Ani Winata Abstrak, W. (n.d.). JCA (Jurnal Cendekia Akuntansi) Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Di Provinsi Jawa Timur. https://doi.org/10.32503/akuntansi.v6i1.7043

Putri Febriani, E., & Febriyastuti Widyawati, R. (2024). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Inflasi Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran 5 Kota/Kabupaten di Jawa Timur tahun 2012-2021 (Vol. 06, Number 2).

Ridwan, R., & Sumarni, N. (2024). Pengaruh Investasi PMDN dan PDRB Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Sumatera Barat Tahun 1994-2023. Journal of Sharia Economics, vol.1.

Rizkita, D., Maghfiroh, M. Z., Adetia, S., Darmansyah, I. N., Subhan, M., Islam, U., Sultan, N., & Riau, S. K. (1896). Analisis Pengaruh Pendidikan, Upah Minimum, dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran di Indonesia.

Sanitra, N. (2021). Effect Of Economic Growth And Human Development Index (Ipm) On Unemployment In Indonesia under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0). Jurnal Ekonomi, 10(01). http://ejournal.seaninstitute.or.id/index.php/Ekonomi

Sari, P. I. P., & Hasmarini, M. I. (2023). Determinan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2017-2019. Al Qalam: Jurnal Ilmiah Keagamaan Dan Kemasyarakatan, 17(1), 112. https://doi.org/10.35931/aq.v17i1.1788

Suparman, S., & Muzakir, M. (2023). Regional inequality, human capital, unemployment, and economic growth in Indonesia: Panel regression approach. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2251803

Wati, I. M., Utami, A. F., & Nisa, F. L. (2024). Pengaruh Angkatan Kerja dan Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap Pengangguran di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Pendidikan. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13908957

Wilujeng, D., & Prasetyia, F. (2024a). Analisis Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (Ipm) Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran. Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies, 3(2), 415–426. https://doi.org/10.21776/jdess.2024.03.2.7




DOI: https://doi.org/10.37531/sejaman.v9i2.12913

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Flag Counter

Creative Commons License

S E I K O : Journal of Management & Business is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
 
© All rights reserved 2018. S E I K O : Journal of Management & Business - ISSN (Print) : 2598-831X, ISSN (Online) : 2598-8301.
 

Web Analytics